SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteno Tops Arbitrage Board as Expiry Discrepancies Distort Spreads

Arbitrage spreads are exceptionally wide today, but execution viability is heavily constrained by contract expirations and dry liquidity pools. Traders looking to capture these spreads must look closely at the settlement timelines. The top nominal gap is SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño, showing a 1,076.47% net profit (potential $5,382 return on a $500 lockup). However, the Polymarket leg (YES @ 7.5¢) expired on May 21, while the Kalshi leg (NO @ 1.0¢) is open until June 4. This is a stale-book discrepancy with zero reported volume; execution is highly improbable. Similarly, the Alabama and Georgia Republican Senate Primary markets exhibit paper spreads of 751% to 1,036%. These are also distorted by expired Polymarket legs (May 19 expiry) relative to Kalshi's far-dated 2027 contracts. For active risk-taking, the GA-04 House Election Winner presents a 743.88% nominal gap (Polymarket Dem NO @ 5.9¢ vs. Kalshi Dem YES @ 6.0¢). Both are active, forward-looking contracts, but zero reported volume means any meaningful size will suffer immediate, prohibitive slippage. Limit orders are required to test depth here.