Malta Parliamentary Election Arbitrage Yields Mismatched 1552% Gap

Liquidity warning: Multiple massive arbitrage gaps are open across Kalshi and Polymarket today, but execution is highly constrained by thin order books and severe expiration mismatches. The widest spread is in the Malta Parliamentary Election 3rd Place market, where buying Labour Party (YES) on Polymarket at 0.1 cents and Labour Party (NO) on Kalshi at 6.0 cents yields a theoretical 1552.89% return ($7,764 on a $500 balanced allocation). However, zero volume has been reported on these lines, and Polymarket settles today (May 30, 2026) while Kalshi settles in May 2027. This 12-month settlement mismatch risks locking up capital. Similar execution risks plague the Alabama Republican Senate Primary markets (Barry Moore and Jared Hudson contracts), which show >1000% gaps but feature a one-year settlement mismatch between platforms and zero active liquidity. The SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño match has a 1076.47% gap, but the Kalshi contract expires two weeks after Polymarket. Only attempt these trades if you can absorb the carry cost of mismatched settlements and verify order book depth before execution.