Alabama Republican Senate Primary Leads Kalshi-Polymarket Gaps at 1438% Arbitrage

Capital lockup and duration risk dominate today's top arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and Kalshi. Leading the list is the Alabama Republican Senate Primary, where buying Barry Moore (NO) on Polymarket at 5.5¢ and (YES) on Kalshi at 1.0¢ yields a theoretical 1438.46% net profit ($7,192 on a $500 risk-adjusted position). Execution Warnings for Traders: 1. Illiquidity: None of the top five spreads have reported active order book volume. Expect high slippage if attempting to size into these positions. 2. Expiry Discrepancies: Significant settlement mismatches exist. The Alabama GOP Primary markets expire on Polymarket in May 2026, but Kalshi's contracts run until May 2027. This 12-month mismatch exposes traders to severe capital lockup and potential legislative/rule change risks in the interim. 3. Contract Definitional Risk: The Brazil GDP spread features different strike targets (<0.7% vs. Above 0.5% NO). Do not treat these as perfect 1:1 hedges without thoroughly reviewing the underlying resolution sources.